| Baloch Society Of North America (BSO-NA) Baloch Society Of North America (BSO-NA) is working to unite and Organize all Baloch in North America and to expose the Occupation of our land (Balochistan) and exploitations of our resources by Pakistani and Iranian Governments, and to bring their Human Rights Violations in Balochistan into the world’s Notice. |
| I Home I About BSO-NA I About Balochistan I News and Articles I Letters And Opinion I BSO-NA Membership I BSO-NA Store I Contact us |
OP-ED
ASIAN AGE, NEW DELHI
JANUARY 29, 2010
Jan.29 : Shivshankar Menon comes to his new assignment as National Security Adviser (NSA) with many proven credentials, but the one advantage that
may have slipped past the notice of many is that he is about 15 years younger than his predecessor. This makes him more contemporary with his
international peers and they will speak to each other in the same idiom. In some ways this is a generational shift in a country where wisdom is
considered directly proportional to age. America’s NSA is the personal appointee of the President and does not have to go through the usual route of
getting congressional approval for his appointment. This is for good reason because no Chief Executive and no country can afford to have the two of
them functioning on different wavelengths. Mr Menon has taken charge at a very crucial time for India as the next decade will determine whether we
finally make it to the Big League or will be destined to remain a potential global power — the perennial best man. Many of the geopolitical problems that
confront India are well known.
The United States, still by far the strongest military, economic, technological and cultural power, has begun to face the reality of limitations of military
power and that the taller the rhetoric, the harder the fall. There is a realisation and sotto voce admission among America’s leaders that they can no
longer act unilaterally. China, possibly acting under premature hubris, seeks space for itself while the US finds it is unable to have the kind of free run it
had earlier. It is this assessment that may have led to Zbigniew Brzezinski’s formulation of the Group of Two (China and US) as global arbiters. US
President Barack Obama had leant backwards while in Beijing when he accommodated China in South Asia. Taking a cue from this, influential US
thinktanks have now suggested that for US policies to succeed in Afghanistan, it is essential to solve the India-Pakistan tangle of Kashmir and for that it
is necessary to involve China in a tripartite arrangement.
A significant power shift is likely to take place in Asia in the next few years. Whether or not India can make the triangle of US-Russia-China from Lisbon
to Vladivostok into a rectangle that includes India will depend on India as much as the other players. There is a great churning of the oceans that has
begun in Asia with the rise of China, the emergence of India and reawakening in Japan. The next few years will see continued struggle and competition
for markets and vital resources that will shape military policies of nations and choke points will remain unstable.
The Indian Ocean has been an attraction for most empires in the past and the Czarist thrust for warm waters, or the later Soviet thrust into Afghanistan
reflected this. Today the Indian Ocean acquires another strategic importance as it provides vital sea lanes to China and the rest of East Asia. China,
despite the vastness of the Pacific, feels landlocked without control over the Indian Ocean. Its deep pockets have helped it acquire vital energy sources
and routes that take gas through the Central Asian land mass into China, but the vast majority of energy-producing countries — Russia and West Asia
— still look to the West as their main buyers. India ranks a poor third in this race.
Our own neighbourhood is likely to remain unstable and Afghanistan will not get sorted out in the foreseeable future, much less by mid-2011. It is not
known how many and for how long will the Western forces remain in Afghanistan. Talks with elements of the Taliban have begun at some level.
Pakistan’s quest for "strategic depth" — which at best means control over the Pushtun on both sides of the Durand Line — will keep the region
unsettled and increasingly Talibanised. Consequently, Pakistan will, in the next few years, become increasingly irrational in its attitude, and flail before it
threatens to fail.
Handling our new-found relationship with the United States and our old friendship with Russia is going to be a challenge and an opportunity. We must
accept that the US, whatever its level of desire of friendship with India, will overlook Pakistan’s India-specific delinquencies and will not even remotely
jeopardise its own interests in and with China. In fact, on Pakistan, there seems to be a strong level of understanding between the two even though this
may become the next battleground between both of them in the unfolding Great Game. The US has concluded that the only points of departure between
the US and India are on trade, climate change and Iran. They do not think that India’s sensitivities on Pakistan’s continued support to terrorism in India
and the US continuously soft-pedalling this is a serious point of departure. Behind all the conviviality and bonhomie with the US, there lurk suspicions
about the various defence-related acronyms like CISMOA (Communications Interoperability Security Memorandum of Agreement), EUMA (End-Use
Monitoring Agreement), Logistical Services Agreement (LSA) and Basic Exchange Cooperation Agreement (BECA), and their small print.
Pakistan is unlikely to give up its policy of using terrorism as a force multiplier as long as its leadership does not have to pay a price for this. The tactics
of terrorism will become more complicated where attacks will be planned in one country, financed from another, terrorists recruited elsewhere in
another country and targeted somewhere else; they will be more sophisticated and lethal in the next few years; cyber-terror by terrorists and
cyberwarfare by states will be more common. There are many players in the field today — the fanatics, criminals, drug traffickers and human traffickers
— which complicates even further the task of intelligence agencies.
Other global and regional issues will impact India’s security. Issues like climate change, terrorism, energy security, water shortages, food security,
migration, and some purely our own — our abysmal law and order, leading to insurgencies in many cases, health, education and infrastructure issues
— will ultimately create security problems. Rapid economic growth will create socio-economic pressures arising from exploding expectations and
demographic pressures on urban areas.
In a tangled and shrinking world, where various — and at times — contradictory interests coalesce, with different triangular or quadrilateral groupings
overlapping, the new NSA will have to have the nimbleness of a Mizo Cheraw dancer, but one is sure he is surefooted enough for these intricacies. It
will be useful to remember that the job is about advising the Prime Minister on national security in its widest connotation, which includes internal as well
as external security matters. The NSA’s job requirement should not include running the security and intelligence apparatus. The NSA is the ultimate
consumer of intelligence, not its producer. If the NSA inadvertently becomes the man responsible for the product, then he ends up being its salesman,
however shoddy the product. Instead, he should be looking for the finished product and customising his requirements.
Vikram Sood is a former head of the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s external intelligence agency
ASIAN AGE, NEW DELHI
JANUARY 29, 2010
Jan.29 : Shivshankar Menon comes to his new assignment as National Security Adviser (NSA) with many proven credentials, but the one advantage that
may have slipped past the notice of many is that he is about 15 years younger than his predecessor. This makes him more contemporary with his
international peers and they will speak to each other in the same idiom. In some ways this is a generational shift in a country where wisdom is
considered directly proportional to age. America’s NSA is the personal appointee of the President and does not have to go through the usual route of
getting congressional approval for his appointment. This is for good reason because no Chief Executive and no country can afford to have the two of
them functioning on different wavelengths. Mr Menon has taken charge at a very crucial time for India as the next decade will determine whether we
finally make it to the Big League or will be destined to remain a potential global power — the perennial best man. Many of the geopolitical problems that
confront India are well known.
The United States, still by far the strongest military, economic, technological and cultural power, has begun to face the reality of limitations of military
power and that the taller the rhetoric, the harder the fall. There is a realisation and sotto voce admission among America’s leaders that they can no
longer act unilaterally. China, possibly acting under premature hubris, seeks space for itself while the US finds it is unable to have the kind of free run it
had earlier. It is this assessment that may have led to Zbigniew Brzezinski’s formulation of the Group of Two (China and US) as global arbiters. US
President Barack Obama had leant backwards while in Beijing when he accommodated China in South Asia. Taking a cue from this, influential US
thinktanks have now suggested that for US policies to succeed in Afghanistan, it is essential to solve the India-Pakistan tangle of Kashmir and for that it
is necessary to involve China in a tripartite arrangement.
A significant power shift is likely to take place in Asia in the next few years. Whether or not India can make the triangle of US-Russia-China from Lisbon
to Vladivostok into a rectangle that includes India will depend on India as much as the other players. There is a great churning of the oceans that has
begun in Asia with the rise of China, the emergence of India and reawakening in Japan. The next few years will see continued struggle and competition
for markets and vital resources that will shape military policies of nations and choke points will remain unstable.
The Indian Ocean has been an attraction for most empires in the past and the Czarist thrust for warm waters, or the later Soviet thrust into Afghanistan
reflected this. Today the Indian Ocean acquires another strategic importance as it provides vital sea lanes to China and the rest of East Asia. China,
despite the vastness of the Pacific, feels landlocked without control over the Indian Ocean. Its deep pockets have helped it acquire vital energy sources
and routes that take gas through the Central Asian land mass into China, but the vast majority of energy-producing countries — Russia and West Asia
— still look to the West as their main buyers. India ranks a poor third in this race.
Our own neighbourhood is likely to remain unstable and Afghanistan will not get sorted out in the foreseeable future, much less by mid-2011. It is not
known how many and for how long will the Western forces remain in Afghanistan. Talks with elements of the Taliban have begun at some level.
Pakistan’s quest for "strategic depth" — which at best means control over the Pushtun on both sides of the Durand Line — will keep the region
unsettled and increasingly Talibanised. Consequently, Pakistan will, in the next few years, become increasingly irrational in its attitude, and flail before it
threatens to fail.
Handling our new-found relationship with the United States and our old friendship with Russia is going to be a challenge and an opportunity. We must
accept that the US, whatever its level of desire of friendship with India, will overlook Pakistan’s India-specific delinquencies and will not even remotely
jeopardise its own interests in and with China. In fact, on Pakistan, there seems to be a strong level of understanding between the two even though this
may become the next battleground between both of them in the unfolding Great Game. The US has concluded that the only points of departure between
the US and India are on trade, climate change and Iran. They do not think that India’s sensitivities on Pakistan’s continued support to terrorism in India
and the US continuously soft-pedalling this is a serious point of departure. Behind all the conviviality and bonhomie with the US, there lurk suspicions
about the various defence-related acronyms like CISMOA (Communications Interoperability Security Memorandum of Agreement), EUMA (End-Use
Monitoring Agreement), Logistical Services Agreement (LSA) and Basic Exchange Cooperation Agreement (BECA), and their small print.
Pakistan is unlikely to give up its policy of using terrorism as a force multiplier as long as its leadership does not have to pay a price for this. The tactics
of terrorism will become more complicated where attacks will be planned in one country, financed from another, terrorists recruited elsewhere in
another country and targeted somewhere else; they will be more sophisticated and lethal in the next few years; cyber-terror by terrorists and
cyberwarfare by states will be more common. There are many players in the field today — the fanatics, criminals, drug traffickers and human traffickers
— which complicates even further the task of intelligence agencies.
Other global and regional issues will impact India’s security. Issues like climate change, terrorism, energy security, water shortages, food security,
migration, and some purely our own — our abysmal law and order, leading to insurgencies in many cases, health, education and infrastructure issues
— will ultimately create security problems. Rapid economic growth will create socio-economic pressures arising from exploding expectations and
demographic pressures on urban areas.
In a tangled and shrinking world, where various — and at times — contradictory interests coalesce, with different triangular or quadrilateral groupings
overlapping, the new NSA will have to have the nimbleness of a Mizo Cheraw dancer, but one is sure he is surefooted enough for these intricacies. It
will be useful to remember that the job is about advising the Prime Minister on national security in its widest connotation, which includes internal as well
as external security matters. The NSA’s job requirement should not include running the security and intelligence apparatus. The NSA is the ultimate
consumer of intelligence, not its producer. If the NSA inadvertently becomes the man responsible for the product, then he ends up being its salesman,
however shoddy the product. Instead, he should be looking for the finished product and customising his requirements.
Vikram Sood is a former head of the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s external intelligence agency
NSA: PM’s adviser,
not superspook
Vikram Sood
not superspook
Vikram Sood