Trouble in
Baluchistan
By Yoram East
Four days after his death in a Baluchi cave hideout the body of the tribal Bugati leader and politician, Nawab Aqbar Bugati (77), was
brought by an army unit to the cemetery in Dara-Bugati where he was buried without the presence of relatives, friends or the tens of
thousand Baluchis who saw the charismatic Sheikh Nawab as their leader.
The drama began two weeks ago when the Pakistani army, backed by helicopter gun ships, commando units and special police
detachments, stormed the Bugati mountain hideout. Since then the Pakistani government declared a policy of appeasement towards
Taliban supporters hoping to put an end to wide spread insurgency along the border with Afghanistan.
According to a military spokesperson, General Sultan, "the cave exploded mysteriously, burying the chieftain, his two grandsons and at
least four other Baluchi leaders, under a pile of rocks, which army engineers, in an attempt to deceive Bugati's followers, said "were so
big that months would be needed to retrieve the bodies. While events surrounding Bugati's death created a wave of violence in the natural
gas rich province bordering Iran to the west and Afghanistan to the east, the army embarked on a covert operation to retrieve the bodies,
probably to confirm that the old feisty warrior-politician, who was a cabinet member in the past, was indeed dead.
Apparently Pakistan's ruler General Pervez Musharaf sounded a sigh of relief as military forensic experts positively identified one of the
decomposed bodies as that of the leader who was perceived by many Pakistanis as a symbol of the true spirit of Pakistan, a nation of
many tribes and colors. In the background of this event lies growing tension over the distribution of wealth accrued from natural resources
in an area regarded by nationalist Baluchi tribesmen as their undisputable homeland.
Baluchistan is also the battle ground where the Baluch Liberation Front (BLF) has been fighting for decades for self determination, which
in recent years have been spilling over into Iran and Afghanistan Baluchi tribal areas.
The Musharaf administration in Islamabad is aware the instability poses a danger not only to the unity of the country but also a threat to its
economic assets. It is a well known fact that each time BLF guerrillas or tribesmen attack any of the gas production sites, the resulting
shortage is felt across the country.
In the latest series of attacks, attributed by the Pakistani intelligence mainly to the Bugati tribe, tribal fighters were more brazen than ever.
They even resorted to direct attacks on security installations guarding oil and gas fields, from time to time raiding government or rival tribal
targets along a 400 mile pipeline stretch. In the last few months, since the end of the harsh winter, dozens of people were killed, including
many soldiers and members of various Pakistani police force units. Hundreds were reported to have been wounded.
The police claim the material damage goes into tens of millions of dollars every month. A few of those affected by the attack were civilian
workers and families of gas industry workers, including foreigners and militia guardsmen. An army and police assessment from August
came to the conclusion paramilitary forces are at this stage incapable of protecting the vital pipeline. The Pakistani military is weighing
new ideas to protect the pipes using new intelligence monitoring systems such as were used to locate the exact hideout of Nawab Aqbar
Bugati.
Musharaf administration critics blame the president and his top advisers for acting too slowly and for neglecting to secure the flow of
natural gas earlier. They say the president was not vigorous enough to push harder and put into practice cooperation between Pakistan
and her neighbors on the matter of natural gas flow. The critical neighbors are Iran and India. The former enjoys a fairly good relationship
with Islamabad and the latter is still trying to figure out how to implement newly signed agreements of cooperation and attempts to ease
border tension.
For the time being the three-country gas project plan is lingering. Musharaf's administration blames India for stalling the negotiations and
for delaying implementation of the project because, as one official said: "India has no interest in helping Pakistan overcome internal,
social and economic problems." Another claimed the Indian government is silently helping the BLF as part of what he described is: "An
Indian dream to divide and weaken Pakistan."
Gas and energy economists have been closely watching the effects of more attack waves on the country's economy, and as has been
reported in the local and foreign media, concluded Pakistan has five years at the most to deal with the situation before shortage in energy
supplies seriously damages the country. The government immediately responded to these worrying evaluations. A decision was made to
avoid canceling the Pakistan-India-Iran project but on the other hand, not to wait much longer for Delhi to join. A Pakistani delegation
notified Tehran to go ahead with the plans for an Iran to Pakistan gas pipeline.
Islamabad is fully aware the crucial point of gas shortage will come in 2010 and that Pakistan will have to buy more from Iran which, as
expected, will gladly oblige. On Jan. 5, the Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namder Zangeneh and six of his top officials met in Islamabad with a
group of Pakistani officials headed by the Petroleum and Natural Resources Minister Amanullah Khan Jadoon. The one-day meeting
brought closer to realization a separate Iran-Pakistan gas deal. Visible was the fact gas shortfalls in Pakistan will increase from a current
400 MMC (million cubic feet of gas per day), to about 4 billion cubic feet per day by 2025.
Following the one day meeting the president instructed the military to plan a defense system to protect an Iran-Pakistan gas project.
Among the main questions the military is now expected to tackle is the issue of continuous and simultaneous surveillance and
monitoring of a number of gas fields and pipelines. "We will need to re-shape our air force and purchase a substantial number of
unmanned surveillance aircraft to control such a vast area," said one air force officer reacting to the plan during a meeting between the
U.S. and Pakistani military.
The other angle in Pakistan's expected acute gas shortage is the question of Iran's overall involvement in the country. One Iranian "price
tag" for large scale cooperation with Islamabad is to rein in anti-Shiite insurgents attacking not only local Shiites but occasionally also
Iranian experts and technicians working in Pakistan. One such case was the riots in Gilgit in the remote northern mountain region, not far
from the famous K-2 mountain peak. At least 21 Shiites including the local religious leader Aga Ziauddin were killed in a series of attacks
in recent weeks causing thousands to flock to the streets, forcing the district governor to impose a curfew.
This sectarian attack initiated by Sunni agitators was condemned by the Iranian government and even by the Hezbollah Shiite terror group
based in Lebanon. Another concern the Pakistani intelligence has to cope with are Hezbollah terrorists, many of whom are well
experienced in fighting in the region, some volunteering to the Taliban, and many now ready "to punish" Sunni Pakistanis. One Hezbollah
preacher recently promised in a mosque north of Zakhle "to defend with our soul and blood any member of our faith under attack of
infidels and even Muslims." Although the Hezbollah threat has yet to be proven by actions, Pakistani intelligence officers advised not to
ignore it saying that sooner, rather than later, the country will suffer from Shiia terrorism disguised as Shiia militia or defense groups.
The goals for 2010 and the crisis expected by 2025 should the gas industry not be able to provide the population's growing needs and
those required for the country's overall development, will ultimately endanger the stability of any government whether a military dictatorship
or a fledgling democracy. The adequate supply of natural gas and oil will be critical factors in Pakistan's aspirations to achieve her growth
and development goals.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yoram East is a journalist, writer and university lecturer, formerly a colonel in the IDF. Yoram writes about World News.
Baluchistan
By Yoram East
Four days after his death in a Baluchi cave hideout the body of the tribal Bugati leader and politician, Nawab Aqbar Bugati (77), was
brought by an army unit to the cemetery in Dara-Bugati where he was buried without the presence of relatives, friends or the tens of
thousand Baluchis who saw the charismatic Sheikh Nawab as their leader.
The drama began two weeks ago when the Pakistani army, backed by helicopter gun ships, commando units and special police
detachments, stormed the Bugati mountain hideout. Since then the Pakistani government declared a policy of appeasement towards
Taliban supporters hoping to put an end to wide spread insurgency along the border with Afghanistan.
According to a military spokesperson, General Sultan, "the cave exploded mysteriously, burying the chieftain, his two grandsons and at
least four other Baluchi leaders, under a pile of rocks, which army engineers, in an attempt to deceive Bugati's followers, said "were so
big that months would be needed to retrieve the bodies. While events surrounding Bugati's death created a wave of violence in the natural
gas rich province bordering Iran to the west and Afghanistan to the east, the army embarked on a covert operation to retrieve the bodies,
probably to confirm that the old feisty warrior-politician, who was a cabinet member in the past, was indeed dead.
Apparently Pakistan's ruler General Pervez Musharaf sounded a sigh of relief as military forensic experts positively identified one of the
decomposed bodies as that of the leader who was perceived by many Pakistanis as a symbol of the true spirit of Pakistan, a nation of
many tribes and colors. In the background of this event lies growing tension over the distribution of wealth accrued from natural resources
in an area regarded by nationalist Baluchi tribesmen as their undisputable homeland.
Baluchistan is also the battle ground where the Baluch Liberation Front (BLF) has been fighting for decades for self determination, which
in recent years have been spilling over into Iran and Afghanistan Baluchi tribal areas.
The Musharaf administration in Islamabad is aware the instability poses a danger not only to the unity of the country but also a threat to its
economic assets. It is a well known fact that each time BLF guerrillas or tribesmen attack any of the gas production sites, the resulting
shortage is felt across the country.
In the latest series of attacks, attributed by the Pakistani intelligence mainly to the Bugati tribe, tribal fighters were more brazen than ever.
They even resorted to direct attacks on security installations guarding oil and gas fields, from time to time raiding government or rival tribal
targets along a 400 mile pipeline stretch. In the last few months, since the end of the harsh winter, dozens of people were killed, including
many soldiers and members of various Pakistani police force units. Hundreds were reported to have been wounded.
The police claim the material damage goes into tens of millions of dollars every month. A few of those affected by the attack were civilian
workers and families of gas industry workers, including foreigners and militia guardsmen. An army and police assessment from August
came to the conclusion paramilitary forces are at this stage incapable of protecting the vital pipeline. The Pakistani military is weighing
new ideas to protect the pipes using new intelligence monitoring systems such as were used to locate the exact hideout of Nawab Aqbar
Bugati.
Musharaf administration critics blame the president and his top advisers for acting too slowly and for neglecting to secure the flow of
natural gas earlier. They say the president was not vigorous enough to push harder and put into practice cooperation between Pakistan
and her neighbors on the matter of natural gas flow. The critical neighbors are Iran and India. The former enjoys a fairly good relationship
with Islamabad and the latter is still trying to figure out how to implement newly signed agreements of cooperation and attempts to ease
border tension.
For the time being the three-country gas project plan is lingering. Musharaf's administration blames India for stalling the negotiations and
for delaying implementation of the project because, as one official said: "India has no interest in helping Pakistan overcome internal,
social and economic problems." Another claimed the Indian government is silently helping the BLF as part of what he described is: "An
Indian dream to divide and weaken Pakistan."
Gas and energy economists have been closely watching the effects of more attack waves on the country's economy, and as has been
reported in the local and foreign media, concluded Pakistan has five years at the most to deal with the situation before shortage in energy
supplies seriously damages the country. The government immediately responded to these worrying evaluations. A decision was made to
avoid canceling the Pakistan-India-Iran project but on the other hand, not to wait much longer for Delhi to join. A Pakistani delegation
notified Tehran to go ahead with the plans for an Iran to Pakistan gas pipeline.
Islamabad is fully aware the crucial point of gas shortage will come in 2010 and that Pakistan will have to buy more from Iran which, as
expected, will gladly oblige. On Jan. 5, the Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namder Zangeneh and six of his top officials met in Islamabad with a
group of Pakistani officials headed by the Petroleum and Natural Resources Minister Amanullah Khan Jadoon. The one-day meeting
brought closer to realization a separate Iran-Pakistan gas deal. Visible was the fact gas shortfalls in Pakistan will increase from a current
400 MMC (million cubic feet of gas per day), to about 4 billion cubic feet per day by 2025.
Following the one day meeting the president instructed the military to plan a defense system to protect an Iran-Pakistan gas project.
Among the main questions the military is now expected to tackle is the issue of continuous and simultaneous surveillance and
monitoring of a number of gas fields and pipelines. "We will need to re-shape our air force and purchase a substantial number of
unmanned surveillance aircraft to control such a vast area," said one air force officer reacting to the plan during a meeting between the
U.S. and Pakistani military.
The other angle in Pakistan's expected acute gas shortage is the question of Iran's overall involvement in the country. One Iranian "price
tag" for large scale cooperation with Islamabad is to rein in anti-Shiite insurgents attacking not only local Shiites but occasionally also
Iranian experts and technicians working in Pakistan. One such case was the riots in Gilgit in the remote northern mountain region, not far
from the famous K-2 mountain peak. At least 21 Shiites including the local religious leader Aga Ziauddin were killed in a series of attacks
in recent weeks causing thousands to flock to the streets, forcing the district governor to impose a curfew.
This sectarian attack initiated by Sunni agitators was condemned by the Iranian government and even by the Hezbollah Shiite terror group
based in Lebanon. Another concern the Pakistani intelligence has to cope with are Hezbollah terrorists, many of whom are well
experienced in fighting in the region, some volunteering to the Taliban, and many now ready "to punish" Sunni Pakistanis. One Hezbollah
preacher recently promised in a mosque north of Zakhle "to defend with our soul and blood any member of our faith under attack of
infidels and even Muslims." Although the Hezbollah threat has yet to be proven by actions, Pakistani intelligence officers advised not to
ignore it saying that sooner, rather than later, the country will suffer from Shiia terrorism disguised as Shiia militia or defense groups.
The goals for 2010 and the crisis expected by 2025 should the gas industry not be able to provide the population's growing needs and
those required for the country's overall development, will ultimately endanger the stability of any government whether a military dictatorship
or a fledgling democracy. The adequate supply of natural gas and oil will be critical factors in Pakistan's aspirations to achieve her growth
and development goals.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yoram East is a journalist, writer and university lecturer, formerly a colonel in the IDF. Yoram writes about World News.
| Baloch Society Of North America (BSO_NA) Baloch Society Of North America (BSO_NA) is Non-Profit Organization, working to unite and Organize all Baloch in North America, to expose the Occupation of our land (Balochistan) and exploitations of our resources by Pakistani and Iranian Governments, and to bring their Human Rights Violations in Balochistan into the world’s Notice. |